How Us Withdrawal Might Influence Cooperation Under The Paris Climate Agreement

Using a new agent-based model, we are examining how the U.S. withdrawal could influence the political process of the Paris Agreement and, therefore, the prospects of achieving the collective goal of limiting warming below 2 degrees Celsius. Our model allows us to analyze the extent to which achieving this goal, despite the withdrawal of the United States, would impose stricter requirements on other essential elements of the Paris cooperation process. First, we see that the effects of the US withdrawal depend decisively on the extent to which Member States return the favour to the promises and contributions of others. Second, the 2oC target will certainly only be met under very low conditions, but even a temporary withdrawal from the United States will significantly limit that rate. To achieve this goal, other countries will need to strengthen their ambitions at the earliest opportunity and meet their commitments at nearly 100%, while maintaining high confidence in the institutions of the Paris Agreement. Third, while the U.S. withdrawal will initially focus on U.S. own emissions, it will ultimately prove even more damaging to other countries` emissions. This negative effect is the most important among the parameters of otherwise benign models. The Trump administration launched the withdrawal with a letter to the United Nations, and in time, the United States will withdraw the day after the election and join Iran and Turkey as the only major countries that do not participate in the agreement.

In his resignation speech, President Trump said, “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris.” The acting mayor of Pittsburgh, Bill Peduto, immediately confirmed on Twitter, noting that 80% of his city`s voters preferred Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election and wrote, “As mayor of Pittsburgh, I can assure you that we will follow the Paris Agreement guidelines for our people, our economy and our future.” [72] Democratic Senate President Chuck Schumer condemned the withdrawal. [73] Petitions have been launched across the country to convince state governors to accede to the Paris Agreement or cancel Trump`s planned withdrawal, including a “ParisMyState” and a MoveOn petition, which has received more than 535,000 signatures. [52] [53] [54] [55] Robert Iger, CEO of Walt Disney Company, also resigned and said, “In principle, I resigned from the Presidential Council because of the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.” [181] Michael Bloomberg pledged $15 million to the executive secretariat of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change and said, “The Americans will honor and respect the Paris Agreement by taking it up and down – and there is nothing Washington can do to stop us.” [175] Shortly after Trump`s announcement, 30 mayors, three governors, more than eighty university presidents and the leaders of more than 100 companies joined Bloomberg to begin negotiations with the United Nations to present a plan to limit U.S. climate emissions, in accordance with the guidelines of the Paris Agreement. [176] In a June 1, 2017 televised address to the White House Rose Garden, Trump said, “To fulfill my solemn duty to protect the United States and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement,” adding, “Ultimately, the Paris Agreement at the highest level is very unfair to the United States.” [2] He said that the agreement, if implemented, would cost $3 trillion in GDP and 6.5 million jobs in the United States. [3] He added that it would “undermine our economy, cripple our workers” and “effectively decapitate our coal industry.” [4] He said he was open to renegotiating the agreement or negotiating a new agreement, but European and UN leaders said the pact “cannot be renegotiated at the request of one party.” [35] Trump also criticized the Green Climate Fund and called it a program to redistribute wealth from rich to poor countries. [36] Article 28 of the agreement allows the parties to terminate the contract following a communication to the custodian, but the comm